Bitwise lifts its 2036 bitcoin forecast to $1.6 million, betting on institutional demand and limited new supply

Summary

Crypto asset manager Bitwise raised its 10-year bitcoin forecast from $1.3 million to $1.6 million by 2036, implying a 34.3% compound annual growth rate, The Block and Bitcoin Magazine reported.

The figures come from Bitwise's 2027 Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report, released Wednesday; The Block said Bitwise kept its market-share assumptions unchanged but raised its 2036 estimates for the global store-of-value market to $110 trillion and the institutional investment market to $303 trillion.

The base case assumes bitcoin captures 25% of the store-of-value market and 1% of institutional assets by 2036, while the report's bear case is $130,686 and its bull case $3.67 million, according to The Block.

This is one firm's long-range projection, not a market event; Bitcoin Magazine framed it around institutional demand and bitcoin's fixed supply.

Key facts

• Bitwise compared its 34.3% projection with a 6.7% annual return forecast for U.S. equities and 10.8% for private equity, based on average projections from JPMorgan, PGIM, BlackRock and Vanguard, The Block reported. (The Block)
• Citing Boston Consulting Group estimates of about $147 trillion in institutional assets and a 1% to 5% bitcoin allocation, Bitwise expects $1.5 trillion to $7.4 trillion of demand versus about $14 billion a year of new supply from mining, per The Block. (The Block)
• "We are more bullish on bitcoin today than we were last year," Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said, The Block reported. (The Block)
• Bitwise expects average bitcoin volatility to fall to 27.8% over the next decade, down from the 32.9% forecast in last year's report, The Block said. (The Block)
• Bitwise said the roughly 53% drawdown from bitcoin's October 2025 high above $126,000 is shallower than the 86%, 84% and 77% drops after the 2013, 2017 and 2021 highs, according to The Block. (The Block)

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