✓ Official source BTC
Fed holds rates at 3.75%–4% as two officials push for a hike; bitcoin later slips below $80,000
⚪Neutral for $BTCThe hold itself was expected, but the hawkish tone and two dissents keep a December hike likely, and bitcoin later slipped below $80,000, so the read is mixed to cautious.News sentiment, not financial advice. It reflects the likely impact of this news, not a price prediction.
Summary
The Federal Reserve kept its federal funds target range at 3-3/4 to 4 percent on Wednesday, according to the FOMC statement, which was approved by a 10–2 vote.
Governor Lisa D. Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth M. Hammack dissented, preferring a quarter-point increase, the statement says.
The Fed said economic activity is expanding at a strong pace and that inflation remains elevated, adding that more information will help it set policy to return inflation to its 2 percent goal.
Decrypt reported bitcoin edged up about 0.2% to roughly $80,950 minutes after the 2 p.m. ET announcement, but CoinDesk later reported it fell below $80,000 as Samsung-driven tech weakness and the hawkish hold triggered a broad risk-off move.
Updates
- Update, : Bitcoin Magazine reports bitcoin swung between about $80,500 and $81,700 after the decision and later traded near $81,478; it puts December hike odds near three in four, versus Decrypt's pre-decision figure of above 70%.
- Update, : CoinDesk reports bitcoin fell below $80,000 Wednesday evening amid Samsung-led tech weakness and the hawkish hold, with $356 million in futures liquidations. Cointelegraph puts December hike odds at 78.4% per CME FedWatch, close to Bitcoin Magazine's roughly three in four.
Key facts
- The Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system, the statement says.
- CME FedWatch had put the odds of no change at around 90% before the decision, Decrypt reported.
- The Fed raised rates in September, its first hike since 2023, in a unanimous 12-0 vote, according to Decrypt.
- Decrypt said traders had put the odds of another quarter-point hike at the Dec. 8-9 meeting above 70% before the decision.
- Dissents fell to two from three in July, when Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan joined Hammack in favoring a hike; both sided with the majority this time, Decrypt reported.
- The October jobs report is due Nov. 6 and October inflation data on Nov. 10, ahead of the Dec. 8-9 meeting, Decrypt said.
- Bitcoin Magazine said it is the first time since 1992 that a Fed governor and a regional bank president have dissented together on the same side.
- Bitcoin spiked to about $81,700 minutes after the announcement, fell below $80,500 and recovered toward $81,000, and was at $81,478 at the time of writing, Bitcoin Magazine reported.
- Fed Chair Kevin Warsh told reporters politics played no role in the decision, days before the midterm elections, according to Bitcoin Magazine.
- CoinDesk reported crypto futures saw $356 million in liquidations as bitcoin fell below $80,000.
- CME FedWatch data showed traders assigning a 78.4% probability to a quarter-point hike by December and 67.3% to at least one by March, as of Wednesday, Cointelegraph reported.
- Warsh declined to say whether the Fed would raise rates at the end of the year, according to Cointelegraph.
- Theo chief investment officer Iggy Ioppe told Cointelegraph that markets "had the hold priced, but not the hawkish tone."
- Analysts quoted by Cointelegraph, including Bitget's Lewis Huang and Sygnum's Fabian Dori, pointed to Thursday's PCE inflation report and big-tech earnings as the next catalysts.
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