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JPMorgan’s first long-term bitcoin forecast sees 10% a year, ahead of stocks and gold, but calls it speculative
Summary
JPMorgan’s 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report projects a base-case annualized return of 10% for bitcoin over the next 10 years, above its forecasts of 7.5% for U.S. large-cap stocks and 5.5% for gold, according to CoinDesk and Cointelegraph.
CoinDesk said it is the first time the bank has put a range on bitcoin returns in its research, and Cointelegraph said it is the first time bitcoin has been included in the long-term outlook, which covers more than 200 assets.
The bank stayed cautious: the report said it does not make a case for bitcoin as a portfolio diversifier because of its unstable correlations, and views it as “a speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing,” both outlets reported.
The outlets’ figures for the outer scenarios differ: CoinDesk reported a bull case of 17% a year and a bear case of a 9.7% annual loss, while Cointelegraph reported 16.6% and an 11.2% annual loss.
Key facts
- CoinDesk said the 10% base case compares with projected returns of 5.6%-6.6% for U.S. bonds, 7.5% for U.S. large-cap equities, 7.7% for small caps and 5.5% for gold.
- CoinDesk quoted portfolio manager Sheena Shah and head of digital asset strategy Dennis Cristallo as saying bitcoin “lacks a strategic role in portfolios other than as a bet on fiat currency expansion or future asset trading on blockchains.”
- The report said bitcoin’s “volatility and unstable correlation to other asset classes…remain an obstacle to [its] widespread inclusion in portfolios,” CoinDesk reported.
- Cointelegraph said the bank’s calculations considered bitcoin’s supply growth relative to money supply, its potential role alongside gold and network adoption.
- Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan welcomed bitcoin’s inclusion on X; Cointelegraph noted Bitwise’s own, more bullish August 2025 forecast of a 28.3% base-case annual return.
- Cointelegraph said JPMorgan published the report on Monday; CoinDesk described it as Tuesday’s report.