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Most Americans oppose betting on elections through prediction markets, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds
Summary
A Reuters/Ipsos poll of 4,506 U.S. adults conducted Sept. 30 to Oct. 5 found that most Americans oppose using prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi to bet on U.S. elections, military actions and government policy decisions, Reuters reported.
Opposition crossed party lines: 69% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans opposed betting on election results, according to Reuters, while Fortune reported that 60% of all adults opposed election betting, 13% supported it and 24% were unsure.
Reuters said 65% opposed prediction-market bets on U.S. military actions and 63% on government policy announcements or decisions, and Fortune reported that only 7% of respondents said they had ever wagered money on a prediction market.
Cointelegraph, citing the poll, noted that the Trump administration is pursuing federal rules for the industry through the CFTC, some of which several states are challenging in court.
Key facts
- Reuters reported that the online, nationwide poll surveyed 4,506 U.S. adults from Sept. 30 through Oct. 5 and had a margin of error of about two percentage points; Fortune put the margin of sampling error at plus or minus 1.5 points, so the two outlets give different figures.
- Reuters said 69% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans opposed using prediction markets to bet on election results, 65% of Americans opposed betting on U.S. military actions and 63% opposed betting on government policy announcements, with only 8% and 9% respectively supporting such bets.
- Fortune reported that 60% of U.S. adults opposed election betting, 13% supported it and 24% were unsure, and that three-quarters of Americans consider prediction-market wagering a form of gambling.
- Fortune quoted Ipsos senior vice president Alec Tyson: “Most view prediction markets as a form of gambling, and it’s clear that they do not see elections or government decision-making as appropriate subjects for it.”
- The Ipsos topline shows 7% of respondents said they had ever wagered money using a prediction market and 90% said they had not; support was highest for betting on professional sports (29%) and college sports (26%).
- Cointelegraph reported that 43% opposed betting on professional sports while 29% supported it, and that many expect the federal-versus-state dispute over who regulates prediction markets to reach the U.S. Supreme Court.
- Cointelegraph noted it reported on Oct. 8 that 39 states and the District of Columbia filed an amicus brief in a New Jersey case describing the CFTC-state conflict as a “national turf war.”